By Larissa Ntoubia
As global development finance becomes more uncertain and multilateral cooperation continues to evolve, there is a need for Africa to strengthen its financing resilience and strategic influence within the international system.
The global multilateral system is undergoing profound transformation amid geopolitical fragmentation, fiscal pressures, and declining confidence in international cooperation. Traditional development finance is becoming increasingly uncertain as major donor countries reduce aid budgets, re-prioritize domestic spending, and shift toward strategic or security linked financing. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Official Development Assistance (ODA) has entered a historic decline. In 2025, global ODA fell by 23.1%, the largest annual drop ever recorded. Sub-Saharan Africa, the world’s most aid-dependent region, experienced 16–28% cuts in bilateral aid, with Least Developed Countries receiving 25.8% less support than the previous year. These reductions have hit health, education, and humanitarian programs hardest, leaving African governments with shrinking fiscal space and widening financing gaps. At the same time, the anticipated transition to a new UN Secretary-General in 2027 presents a pivotal moment for redefining multilateralism and the future role of the United Nations in global development governance. For Africa, where many development programmes remain partly dependent on external financing, these shifts raise urgent questions about financing, representation, and strategic positioning within a changing international order.
As African countries face increasing vulnerability from declining development assistance and unpredictable donor priorities, existing institutions are struggling to respond effectively to overlapping crises. The uncertainty surrounding the policy direction of the next UN Secretary-General adds another layer of ambiguity regarding the future of development cooperation and the prioritization of African interests within the UN. Without engagement and alternative financing strategies, African countries risk diminished policy influence and increased exposure to global economic shocks. The brief examines how declining development finance and the 2027 UN leadership transition may shape Africa’s development prospects and influence within the multilateral system.
Declining development finance and the changing global aid landscape
Over the past years, development finance has served as a key pillar of international cooperation, supporting poverty reduction, infrastructure development, public health, and institutional capacity building across developing countries. However, the global aid architecture has evolved significantly as donor priorities have shifted from long-term development objectives toward crisis response, security concerns, and strategic geopolitical interests. ODA is increasingly being redirected toward humanitarian emergencies, refugee support, climate adaptation, and security-related initiatives. Simultaneously, many traditional donor countries face domestic fiscal pressures that constrain foreign assistance budgets. These developments have contributed to growing uncertainty regarding the volume, predictability, and accessibility of development finance for African countries.
This is not without severe implications as declining and less predictable external financing threatens progress towards sustainable development goals. African countries face widening financing gaps at a time when investment needs are growing, making the search for alternative and sustainable financing sources increasingly urgent. In Kenya for instance external financing for health programs dropped by about 20%, forcing the government to increase domestic allocations to sustain HIV/AIDS and malaria programs.
The next UN Secretary-General and the future of multilateral cooperation
The present multilateral system is confronted with growing geopolitical rivalries, weakening consensus among major powers, and declining trust in international institutions. These challenges have raised questions about the effectiveness and legitimacy of the United Nations in addressing global crises and coordinating collective action. The appointment of a new UN Secretary-General in 2027 will occur at a critical moment for global governance. The next Secretary-General will shape priorities regarding development cooperation, financing for sustainable development, climate action, peacebuilding, and institutional reform. Leadership choices may significantly influence the extent to which multilateral institutions remain effective platforms for addressing Africa’s development challenges.
The 2027 leadership transition echo past climate governance shifts: when developed countries pledged $100 billion/year in climate finance at Copenhagen in 2009, African states secured recognition of their adaptation needs, but delivery took 14 years, with Africa receiving only about 26% of flows. Under Secretary-General António Guterres from 2017, the UN has pushed for fulfillment and $40 billion/year in adaptation finance by 2025, yet delays eroded trust. This gap underscores the need for binding accountability mechanisms in the next leadership cycle. A renewed commitment to multilateralism could strengthen development partnerships and increase Africa’s voice in global decision-making. Conversely, continued fragmentation could weaken collective responses to development challenges and reduce available resources. African governments therefore have a strong interest in actively engaging in debates on UN reform and future leadership priorities.
Africa’s strategic options amid fragmentation
Reducing dependence on external assistance requires greater domestic resource mobilization, improved tax administration, strengthened public financial management, and the development of innovative financing instruments. Regional financial institutions can also play a greater role in mobilizing investment for infrastructure and sustainable development.
Expanding South–South and diversified partnerships is critical. African countries should pursue broader partnerships with emerging economies while maintaining balanced relations with traditional development partners. South–South cooperation offers opportunities for technology transfer, investment, trade expansion, and knowledge sharing that complement traditional aid flows. China’s Belt and Road Initiative has invested heavily in African infrastructure projects since its launch in 2013, with investment reaching $61.2 billion in 2025 alone that is a 283% year on year increase, making Africa the top BRI destination. In addition, India-Africa trade reached $89.54 billion in 2022, and Ethiopia’s Addis Ababa–Djibouti electrified railway transports 98% of Ethiopia’s coffee exports and saved about $43 million USD in logistics costs in 2022. These partnerships demonstrate tangible gains in cost savings, logistics efficiency, and regional trade expansion.
Furthermore, Africa’s growing demographic and economic importance provides an opportunity to strengthen its influence within international institutions. Greater coordination among African states, particularly through the African Union and regional economic communities, can improve bargaining power and ensure that African priorities are adequately reflected in future multilateral reforms.
Policy Recommendations
- Reduce excessive dependence on traditional donor finance through domestic resource mobilization and innovative financing mechanisms. African finance ministries can expand domestic tax bases. For example Rwanda’s e-tax system increased compliance by 12% in 2021. Also, issuing green bonds can attract climate-focused investors.
- African RECs should engage proactively in discussions surrounding UN reform and the selection priorities of the next Secretary-General. Policy platform could influence the next Secretary-General’s agenda, ensuring African priorities like debt relief and youth employment are central. Pushing for permanent representation in key UN financing committees, will ensure that Africa’s demographic weight of over 1.4 billion people is reflected in governance.
- Expand South–South and diversified partnerships while safeguarding policy autonomy. Morocco’s renewable energy partnerships with EU and Gulf states show how Africa can balance traditional and emerging partners.
- Build coordinated African diplomatic positions to influence the future architecture of multilateral governance. The AU’s AfCFTA negotiation success demonstrates Africa’s ability to negotiate as a bloc this model should be replicated in UN financing debates.
Conclusion
The transition to a new UN Secretary-General coincides with declining development finance and increasing uncertainty within the global multilateral system. These developments present both significant challenges and strategic opportunities for Africa. While traditional sources of development assistance may become less reliable, African countries can strengthen their resilience by diversifying financing sources,
Larissa Ntoubia
Ntoubia Ngapmen Larissa, holds a Bachelor’s degree in Banking and Finance and a Master’s degree in Economics and Financial Engineering from the University of Yaoundé II Soa. She is currently a research assistant at the Nkafu Policy Institute of Denis and Lenora Foretia Foundation under the Economic Affairs Division.
