Introduction
America’s 2024 general elections which occurred on November 5, 2024, have been described in both the United States (U.S.) and the rest of the world as one of the consequential elections in the modern era. For some observers, the influence of the U.S. in the international system as a great power, as we’ve frequently been reminded of the common phrase…“when the U.S. sneezes, the world catches a cold”(1), underscores the significance of America’s 2024 general elections.
As the prominent BBC journalist, Lyse Doucet has stated, the stark differences between Vice President Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party and former President Donald Trump of the Republican Party, elevated the global euphoria about the 2024 elections. Critical questions were also raised on whether Kamala Harris will win the election and carry on with President Joe Biden’s policy of sustaining America’s role in world affairs or will it be Donald Trump whose vision focuses on America First agenda and not globalism (2).
The whom will it be or better put, who will win the election question was answered in the early hours of November 6, 2024, when Donald Trump won the presidential election. Newsweek describes his victory over Kamala Harris as the “greatest comeback in political history”(3), especially in the U.S. Some observers have also expressed concern about how Trump’s return to power will usher in a new era of uncertainty in the U.S. and the world (4). This policy brief discusses some of the likely impact of what Foreign Affairs describes as the World of Trump 2.0 (5). The question of interest is: Where will Africa fit in the so-called World of Trump 2.0? And how will U.S.-Africa relations look like in the next four years from a geopolitical perspective? This paper attempts to address some of these questions.
U.S.-Africa Relations: An Overview
Historically speaking, the relations between Africa and the U.S. cannot be discussed without mentioning the painful history of the trans-Atlantic slave trade where millions of enslaved Africans were taken to the so-called New World, which later created one of the largest African diasporic communities in the Americas, especially in the U.S. (6). In terms of modern-day diplomatic relations, U.S.-Africa relations date back to several decades, often characterized by different policy priorities, trends, and complexities. While the phrase U.S.-Africa relations has become the accepted terminology in the scholarly/policy literature, it is vital to also note that the U.S. has specific diplomatic ties with each of the 54 countries in Africa. For brevity purposes, this paper also uses the same terminology of U.S.-Africa relations to capture the broader policy framework of U.S. relations with the African continent.
Generally, U.S.-Africa relations in the post-colonial era have been largely shaped by the geopolitics of the Cold War era, U.S. role as a unipolar power in the post-Cold War era, and its relationship with Africa in the post-9/11 period. U.S.-Africa ties were also strengthened in the early 1990s when most African countries undertook political reforms and transitioned to democratic rule. The next paragraphs highlight some of the policy priorities that have been central to U.S.-Africa relations since the late 1990s.
The introduction of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which was signed into law by President Bill Clinton in May 2000, which has continued to provide duty-free access to the U.S. market (7) from Sub-Saharan African countries further reinforced the U.S.-Africa relationship for decades. U.S.-Africa partnership was further enhanced in the post-9/11 era when the Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) (8) was declared by President George W. Bush (9). Other partnerships such as the Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief which invested over $110 billion in the global HIV/AIDS response, especially in Africa, saving more than 25 million lives (10), to the U.S. President’s Malaria Initiative (11) are cases in point. The U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit, which was started in 2014 by President Barack Obama (12) also needs to be highlighted as another important element of U.S.-Africa relations.
Simply put, U.S.-Africa relations cover critical areas like trade, economic development, human rights, humanitarian issues, as well as other strategic and geo-political areas such as security, countersecurity initiatives, and the shared support for democratic values. As earlier noted, the question to be explored is: Where will Africa fit in the World of Trump 2.0 (13) on these key areas of U.S.-Africa relations?
U.S.-Africa Relations under Trump’s First Term
To better understand the likely impact of Trump’s second term on U.S.-Africa relations, it will be useful to briefly discuss U.S.-Africa relations under his first term. President Trump’s first term, as well-known, was largely driven by his America First foreign policy agenda (14). I discuss this from two standpoints. First, his disdain for Africa was fully on display when he made his unfortunate comment about African countries and Haiti as “s-hole countries”(15) in his first term. From the policy standpoint, his travel ban on Muslim-majority countries, including some African countries (16), is another case in point. Unlike other past U.S. presidents, Trump never visited Africa as President during his first term (17), although his wife, First Lady Melania Trump, visited four African countries in 2018 (18).
Second, his skepticism about U.S. foreign aid to Africa is also well-documented. While some experts were expecting a drastic cut in the annual $7 billion to $8 billion U.S. assistance often given to the continent (19), Africa still received about $7 billion in annual U.S. foreign aid during Trump’s first term in office (20). This unexpected trend raises an important question of whether Trump’s bombastic rhetoric on restricting foreign aid under his America First agenda will continue while his policy priorities might differ on the ground.
John Campbell (21) advances such a line of thinking when he argues that Trump shows little interest in Africa, but his “administration has carried on many of the constructive policies of its predecessors“ during his first term. He attributed the continuity in policy to the bipartisanship in Congress during his first term (22). Is this trend likely to continue? Other experts are also concerned about the continuous emphasis on more aid syndrome rather than more trade with Africa, which is another reminder of how the U.S. and the West have historically engaged with the continent (23). Studies have shown that U.S.-Africa trade fell to about $41 billion in 2018, down from about $100 billion in 2008 (24, 25).
Trump’s Second Term and Africa: A Geopolitical Perspective
Given the preceding analysis of U.S.-Africa relations under Trump’s first term, one could forecast how his second term might look like given that the Make America Great Again (MAGA) and the America First flags will continue to fly very high in his second term. For some, the extension of the America First agenda into Trump’s second term may put Africa last when it comes to his policy priorities (26).
Trump’s bombastic rhetoric about Africa is also not likely to change towards a positive direction in his second term. What is likely to occur is the routine or mundane policy priorities of U.S.-Africa relations often driven by heads (Secretaries) of executive departments and bureaucrats. Areas of security and humanitarian assistance programs as well as trade might experience some positive incremental changes as seen in his first term. At the same time, Trump’s recent cabinet picks of his loyalists to key positions are raising further concerns. With his loyalists who are ready to take control of these key positions after January 20th 2025, in case the U.S. Senate confirms them, especially the controversial picks, it is possible that the expected incremental positive changes to the routine policy priorities of U.S.-Africa relations might face serious difficulties (27). The bipartisanship support from Congress for some of these routine policy priorities is also likely to face huge challenges given his party’s control of both houses where the MAGA agenda will certainly take the center stage on key policy issues.
On trade, it is possible that Trump 2.0 might continue with its previous Prosper Africa initiative (28) which aims to increase U.S. trade and investments on the continent (29). One major uncertainty with trade will center around the renewal of AGOA which expires in 2025 (30). This is where I expect African political leaders, especially trade ministers, to start preparing to strongly articulate their views and make a strong case for the renewal of AGOA. Expanding the framework where more countries can qualify for the duty-free access to the U.S. market under a renewed AGOA will be critical. Currently, only 32 countries in Africa qualify for the AGOA initiative, while only 5 countries enjoy about 80 percent of the benefits of the initiative (31).
From a geopolitical standpoint, the second term of Trump with the expected marginal engagement in Africa might expand the “geopolitical vacuum” being created where Russia and China will be quick to embrace the vacuum. I argue that the routine policy programs and collaborations on strategic security issues on counterterrorism initiatives with countries such as Nigeria (32) and Kenya (33) might continue, but the expected vigorous U.S. presence to compete with Russia and China might be lacking in his second term.
With the increasing democratic decay in West Africa (34) through recent military coups (35) where the U.S. had to withdraw from its counterterrorism partnership with Niger (36), further demonstrates the uncertainties in the future of U.S.-Africa relations, as the influence of Russia and China keeps rising across the continent. President Biden’s all-in on Africa strategy with the promise of investing about $15 billion to boost trade and investment (37) on the continent is also likely to face some problems in the second term of Trump.
Conclusion
There is no question that the democratic world is under pressure with the rise of populist governments across many parts of the world. As often said with democratic elections, voters speak through elections. The American voters have spoken with the election of former President Trump. The world is bracing for uncertainties, including Africa, but there is hope that the routine policy priorities of U.S.-Africa relations might continue.
Prominent African political leaders have also congratulated Donald J. Trump on his huge victory. Leaders such as William Ruto of Kenya and Nigeria’s Bola Tinubu. They have all conveyed their willingness to work with President Trump on mutually beneficial partnerships and strategic issues that will promote global peace and security during his second term in office (38).
Dr. Felix Kumah-Abiwu
Dr. Felix Kumah-Abiwu is a Non-Resident Fellow (Governance & Democracy Division) at Nkafu Policy Institute (Denis & Lenora Foretia Foundation)
Associate Professor/Director, Center for African Studies Kent State University, Kent, Ohio (USA)
