Introduction
The global guardian, a global risk assessment and geopolitical stress index, predicts (1) through its 2025 global risk map that Cameroon falls amongst countries at risk of a polycrisis. This prediction draws roots from a plethora of disturbing political and security dynamics which run across the country. This prediction is further supported by local media (2) through country reports that highlight a series of issues amongst which the Anglophone conflict that shows no signs of abating, with repeated attacks from terrorist group – Boko Haram, who have against all expectations, deployed different approaches to their war tactics by adopting the use of drones (3) to conduct targeted attacks. More than ever, speculations keep gaining grounds across the public space over the 92-year-old president’s state of health and ability to lead the country fuelled by his increasing absence from major national and international events. Public expectations for a change of leadership during the October 2025 presidential elections are heightened as frustrations over the dominance of the political landscape in Cameroon by President Biya’s CPDM party since 1984 are on the rise. Observing realities on the ground, it could be fair enough to argue that Cameroon’s political and economic status quo boasts of very little or nothing to write about. This paper is intended to lay solid evidence through specific indicators which suggest that the polycrisis in Cameroon is significantly impacting the country’s socio-political and economic landscape. From a preventive perspective, the paper concludes by tabling salient recommendations to shape public opinion and further inform policy makers and stakeholders in view of mitigating the likelihood of any exacerbation.
I – Key Indicators of a ‘polycrisis’
“In light of the many challenges facing the world today, it’s clear we’re not dealing with just one crisis, but many”. Economist and historian Adam Tooze believes that these challenges have escalated into what he calls a ‘polycrisis’ (4). The same could be said about Cameroon wherein a multitude of intertwined events have plagued the country into a state of chaos. What accounts for these? Firstly, economic regression largely linked to the disruption of supply chains due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Israel – Hamas war and resurgence of social tensions within the country as highlighted by the African Development Bank (5), resource scarcity and rising costs of living which have greatly impacted livelihoods with inflation rising to 5.3% in January 2025 (6, 7 ), making it the highest rate in the past year further complicated by the Cameroon’s high public debt, likely to go worst (8). Secondly, political polarization, internal conflicts and structural repression of political parties continues to take precedence across the political space. By way of illustration, leading opposition party, PCRN is caught in a net of in-house leadership tussle as authorities within the party are yet to decipher and agree on two core issues; who owns the party vs who will represent the party at the upcoming presidential elections (9). Meanwhile, the Cameroon Renaissance Movement, CRM’s party leader Maurice Kamto is uncertain and at loggerheads with the government over the admissibility of his candidacy in the next presidential elections (10). While other political parties and key political figures are in disarray over the formation of a coalition to counter CPDM’s dominance, President Biya whose leadership has been widely criticized for its over four ‘ decades of leadership largely marred by high levels of corruption, embezzlements, economic stagnation, power abuse, social unrests, surge in tribalism and hate speech is projected to contest for another term of office against all odds. More disturbing issues in the country include the growing rate of terrorism, insecurity, feminicide, human rights abuses, inter-ethnic clashes witnessed in large proportions across the conflict-affected North West, South West and Far North regions and significant proportions recorded in other regions of the country.
II – Contemplating the Impact of the polycrisis
Transparency and accountability which are widely considered as the bedrock of good governance happens to be the missing ingredient in Cameroon’s governance architecture. Faced with this troubling architecture, the current polycrisis has increasingly led to weakened leadership, kleptocracy, gerontocracy, lack of independence of the various arms of government, hence, power abuse. The governance system is highly characterised by corruption, embezzlement and misappropriation of public funds. In the management of the COVID-19 funds nicknamed “Covidgate” for example, over 160 high profile government officials involved in the management of the COVID-19 funds allegedly embezzled public resources for personal gain (11). This case amongst many others, explicitly reflects the nature of Cameroon’s public service and governance architecture as a whole.
Socio-economically, Cameroon faces severe economic fragility that is orchestrated by ongoing conflicts in three of the country’s ten regions. Inflation is reported to have risen to 5.3% in January 2025, the highest rate in the past years. Economic hardship, low wages, and unemployment are the leading causes of the massive exodus of teachers, doctors and a resourceful proportion of youths and women to the diaspora for better opportunities (12). Moreover, climate change is causing devastating consequences on livelihoods and natural resources, which are vital for agriculture – the primary source of income for four out of every ten workers in the country. Even worst, the world bank projects that about 8 million people in Cameroon will be affected by extreme poverty in 2026 (13).
In terms of security, the polycrisis can be perceived to have equally affected the security governance of the country. Following a series of unprecedented events ranging from the August 2023 coup in Gabon, alleged infighting and power tussle amongst President Biya’s closest collaborators, separatist confrontations in the English-speaking regions of the country and a 49-day controversial stay of President Biya out of the country in October 2024, a series of military appointments which immediately followed suit, were seen as an effort by the President to reinforce the nation’s security apparatus to handle pressing issues and curb every attempt of the unforeseen By focusing on strategic military and intelligence roles, President Biya appeared to have tightened his grip on the country’s defense sector—a domain essential for maintaining control amidst political uncertainty. In addition and besides rampant power abuse, arbitrary arrests and unlawful detention by security personnel which have taken a toll on civilians, economic disparities and poor wages of soldiers in the country have consequently driven soldiers from Cameroon’s armed forces to align and fight alongside the Russian army in the ongoing war against Ukraine (13).
III – Mitigating the gravity of Cameroon’s polycrisis: policy alternatives
Recognizing the existence of a polycrisis in Cameroon and its broader implications across the society, the paper concludes with the following recommendations:
To the government:
-In the current context of questionable democratic governance and to solve the underlying problem of poor governance, the government of Cameroon could initiate a process to re-form the governance architecture of the country by carrying out in-depth constitutional amendments and structural reforms reflective of the country’s local context. These reforms should be geared towards enhancing the operationalization and efficiency of the three arms of government which are essential in deeply addressing the country’s pressing challenges. This move will require an intentional political will of the government, a recognition of the country’s historical evolution and an inclusive/participative approach taking into consideration all public and private factions of the community.
-Furthermore, the government needs to recognize the necessity for leadership alternation and to trigger a mechanism for smooth and acceptable transition not only to avoid likely power tussle in the event of the unseen but to dissuade frustrations expressed by large factions of the public both in Cameroon and the diaspora which have led to increased Anti-Biya campaigns, online agitations and violence on state target officials by resistance movements.
-Civil society and pressure groups –
CSOs, political parties and pressure groups must prioritize peace and security in its operationalizations as a backbone for community development. While CSOs and pressure groups must pursue advocacy in all legal forms for democratic principles to be implemented without reserve in the upcoming elections and for political reforms to take place, political parties led by key elites must subdue their egos/personal interests and work towards a collective agenda for the common good.
-The International community
To avoid any further conflict escalation or unforeseen security incidences triggered by the polycrisis, the international community could leverage its influence through bi-lateral and multi-lateral engagements with Cameroon to mount pressure on the government of Cameroon so as to address underlying security and governance issues. Travel restrictions/bans, sanctions, freeze of assets, withdrawal of foreign aid, suspension of economic partnerships could lay the foundation for positive outcomes.
-Media
The role of the media in influencing public opinion cannot be over-emphasized. While autocratic countries have resorted to suppressing independent media for flagging malpractices and exposing corrupt leaders, liberal democratic countries have recognized the indispensable role played by the media. It is therefore recommended that through fact-finding missions and unbiased reporting, media organs need to continuously leverage their scope, networks and platforms to give more visibility to under-documented and under-reported issues deeply plaguing the country so as to positively shape public opinion with evidence-based data and more importantly to counter government propaganda in view of informing best responses to underlying issues.
Antem Anthony
Antem Anthony is the Head of Conflict Analysis and Prevention unit & Policy Analyst in peace & security at the Foretia Foundation. Prior to joining the Foundation, he served as conflict, policy and security assistant at the International Crisis Group, Kenya. Anthony is a certified administrative and operations professional from the United Nations University for Peace and the Pan African Institute for Development, West Africa (PAID-WA)
